In 2013, China's food security has once again become the focus of attention from all walks of life.

    According to the latest data provided by China's General Administration of Customs, China imported 13.98 million tons of cereal agricultural products in 2012, surging 156% compared with 5.45 million tons in the same period of 2011, and the import of wheat, rice and maize exceeded 1000 Ten thousand tons mark.

    These figures have aroused the public opinion. For a time, the media screamed "vigilance on the surge of grain imports", "worrying about China's food self-sufficiency" and so on. However, according to Li Guoxiang, deputy director of Macroeconomics at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, it seems unnecessary to be so nervous. He pointed out that in the past year China's import of grain has risen sharply. In fact, the government took the initiative to increase its reserves primarily by making use of the low international grain prices.

    In fact, with the continuous increase of grain output in our country, the overall supply of grain in China is sufficient and the grain prices have also remained stable in recent years. Zhuo Chong agricultural analyst Sun Guangmei told the "China Times" reporter, China's agricultural production is gradually maturing, short-term food production is unlikely to decline.

    Import soared behind

    According to the National Bureau of Statistics survey of 31 provinces in China and the comprehensive statistics of agricultural production and operation units, the national grain output in 2012 was 589.95 million tons, an increase of 18.36 million tons or 3.2% over 2011, achieving 9 consecutive years of grain output growth .

    Against this background, Li Guoxiang believes there are two reasons for this: First, the issue of "tight balance" in structure and the tight supply and demand of some varieties; second, the international prices of some varieties are low, and the use of international and domestic Reserve two stores, adjust food prices.

    Li Guoxiang analysis, corn is the fastest growing varieties of demand in recent years, the new demand mainly comes from feed. Today, people's living standards improve, meat and eggs consumption increased, according to the conversion ratio of meat and food, each producing a kilogram of meat and eggs, you need a few pounds or even ten pounds of food, resulting in a feed supply Tense, which in turn led to increased demand for corn.

    But on the whole, the gap of corn is not big. Sun Guangmei said that corn import volume did not exceed the import tariff quota restrictions, the import quotas is 7.2 million tons, while the actual import volume is about 5 million tons.

    Corn imports are due to a lack of demand and rice imports are due to poor prices. According to Sun Guangmei introduction, from January to October last year, the average price of Vietnamese rice arrived in Hong Kong was 3,162 yuan / ton, while the average price of late indica rice in Guangzhou was 4086 yuan / ton, while that of domestic rice was 924 yuan higher than that of Vietnam rice. Because of the low international food prices, the state is taking advantage of this opportunity to purchase and storage and stabilizing domestic prices.

    Li Guoxiang also said that rice and wheat, in fact, have been surplus, for some time did not even start the acquisition. The reason why it is still imported is actually an initiative by the government to increase reserves and stabilize the overall price level.

    This involves a problem of food self-sufficiency. Li Guoxiang analyzed that the self-sufficiency rate is not as high as possible and blind pursuit of productivity will result in a series of problems such as the decline of soil fertility, soil erosion and resource depletion, and will be favorable to China if the positive import is used when the international grain price is low harm. Because China has more than 3 trillion U.S. dollars of foreign exchange reserves, the U.S. dollar is constantly depreciating due to the quantitative easing policy of the United States. Instead of letting such a huge amount of foreign reserves fall asleep, it is better to import food.

    Food prices continue to remain stable

    It is understood that last year's cereal imports amounting to about 5% of the world's 280 million tons of cereal trade, equivalent to South Korea's annual cereal imports and equivalent to 60% of Japan's cereal imports.

    Precisely because of this, some of the largest trading companies in the world are trying hard to get a piece of China's food imports. Louis Dreyfus, one of the world's largest grain traders, described the surge in China's maize imports as a "move to change the pattern." While Japanese trader Maruzen bought US private grain trader Gavilon and its debt for $ 5.3bn to supply China with corn.

    However, the actual situation is not as good as the international grain merchants imagine.

    Corn is the most structural demand, but prices have not skyrocketed. According to Wang Hongbo, manager of Hongwang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd., Shuangliao City, Jilin Province, the purchase price and sales price of the local maize have even appeared upside down. At the local level, the state's purchase price for corn is 1.06 yuan / kg. They bought corn at a rate of 1.78-1.13 yuan / kg per kilogram for peasants, while the prices quoted by downstream buyers were 1.2-1.3 yuan / kg.

    Why the actual situation is not as optimistic as the international grain merchants expected, the main reason is the state macro-control. Li Guoxiang said that in terms of food, the state has adequate reserves and very strong market regulation ability.

    On the other hand, the yearly increase in grain output has also put "double insurance" on the stability of grain prices. Although some media questioned that with the loss of arable land in China, food production in China is approaching a "turning point." However, in Sun Guangmei's opinion, due to the current planting conditions, the pesticide and chemical fertilizer technologies are much more mature than before, and more experience has been gained in combating drought and disastrous weather. Policies and policies have also ensured the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain. Possibility is not large, at the slowest growth.

    Li Guoxiang said that in the future, the government will make the target of grain price control very clear, that is, it will rise steadily and will rise every year, but the magnitude will not be too large. A rice dealer also told reporters that in the past few years the price of rice has basically stabilized, increasing by 0.1 yuan / kg to 0.2 yuan / kg every year. It may rise slightly in November, but the price of new rice will drop after December .